Will Convergence or Polarization Characterise Poland’s Regional Development to 2020, in the Light of the Projection of the Hermin Model?

Abstract

An assessment of the effectiveness of a crucial instrument of regional policy in the hands of the Polish government is the main purpose of the study. The instrument referred to concerns funds from the European Union, as allocated under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRO) 2007–2013. The evaluations presented here are formulated in the context of the primary goal of regional policy, which is the possibility of exaggerated regional disparities in levels of development being reduced. In the article, the main attention is focused on the economic dimension to cohesion.

In the general perspective, the outline of the analysis conducted comes down to an examination over the relatively long term of two hypothetical processes to the development of the Polish regions, that development being based either on determinants identified up to 2007, or else in addition on the utilisation of UE funding included within the NSRO with 2007 and additionally up to 2013.

The two assumptions made were that the conducted evaluation concerns processes of the development of provinceregions in the period 1995–2020, as well as that differences in GDP per capita on a voivodship by voivodship basis is a measure of regional cohesion.

The calculations reported here made use of data and forecasts from Poland’s Central Statistical Office, along with HERMIN model simulations.